The Cost of the War on Terror: 60,000 American lives; $2 trillion

A thousand Americans have died in Iraq since the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom, giving the mission's opponents the statistic they have impatiently been waiting for.

It is time for the President to level with the American public about the long-term costs of the War on Terror (WOT). Bush has already declared that we will be engaged in it for many decades--some experts believe we may not see its conclusion in our lifetime.

Now Bush needs to redefine the WOT and estimate how many lives we will lose fighting and winning it. Here is how he can approach it:

First, this is not just a war on terror, but a war on extremist Islam. This form of Islam takes many forms: in Iraq, Saddam practiced a form of militant Sunni Islam that sought to unite the Middle East under a Sunni Arab ruler--him. Bin Laden practiced a much more radical--Wahabbi--Islam that sought to unite the Muslim umma under a caliphate--him.

Both forms of Islam were manifestations of a fundamental breakdown in Islamic societies. The WOT seeks to repair and transform these societies.

Second, since September 11, we have lost over 4000 American lives to the WOT. By the time a recognizable victory is achieved in this war, we may lose 60,000 Americans--more than were lost in Korea or Vietnam. This may include civilian American lives lost to acts of terror on American soil and around the world. However, casualty figures could be significantly larger should the enemy resort to WMD or other means of mass murder.

Third, we may end up spending over $2 trillion on this war. This figure includes the costs of military action, maintaining peacekeeping troops, financing moderate Muslim opposition movements in target nations, post-action reconstruction, and funding reform initiatives--schools, universities, media, etc.

By setting these expectations, Bush will have prepared the American public for the worst. The administration must also admit that the spate of Islamist attacks globally over the last few weeks are not the desperate acts of an enemy that senses defeat.

This enemy is not centralized and doesn't get its orders from a single source. Islamism is a self-directed, nihilist cult that has, over the last few decades, always managed to find volunteers. Just such a group fought and wore down the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.

Moderate Muslims and friendly Muslim regimes are our best and last hope if we are to minimize loss of American treasure to a war with this cult.