No Bounce

It didn't happen--no dual-digit bounce. Kerry now trails Bush 50%-46% among likely voters.

Analysts say the lack of a bounce may reflect the intensely polarized contest.

Not really. As I noted here, Kerry's Jan-July poll numbers reflect the best he will do--the bounce was already factored in and it largely reflected anticipation of the addition of the more likeable Edwards to the Kerry ticket.

In other words, had Edwards not been at the back of most voters' minds, Kerry would not have polled as well as he has so far.

Visibility cannot possibly help Kerry-- the more the voters learn about him--as they soon will--the Bush-Cheney marketing blitz will launch shortly--the less likely they are to be enamored by his candidacy.

But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention.

Indeed.